On December 8, the 53-year reign of the al-Assad family came to an end as rebel groups took over Syria. The Syrian civil war has been raging for almost 14 years, starting in 2011, and many experts viewed the regime collapse as a sudden shift in the conflict’s power dynamics.
We spoke to AUC Professor Bahgat Korany to better understand the causes, impact and future of Syria following the fall of the al-Assad regime.
Korany believes the speedy fall of al-Assad is significant in itself, demonstrating “our misconception of confusing the state’s fierceness with its strength. On the contrary, in this case, fierceness is much more a demonstration of the lack of legitimacy and acceptability, indeed of the state’s weakness.”
Korany explained how al-Assad’s regime was mainly maintained through force, by counting on the Alawite minority and other groups through bribery, along with foreign support from Iran and Russia. “The decline of resources available at the disposal of the regime (lack of finance) or of its allies (increasing involvement of Russia in Ukraine and Iran devoting its main resources to conflict escalation with Israel) created serious economic problems for members of the Syrian army. Many simply abandoned the regime,” he said.
Yet while the fall of the regime was welcomed by many, Korany said that “the attainment of political stability for Syrians is not for tomorrow. There are too many militias and warlords dispersed in Syria’s different regions, many with their independent base among the population.” Mohammed al-Bashir has been named interim prime minister, and a new government is expected to materialize by the time his term ends on March 1, 2025.
“Though Bashar’s fall was really overdue, hard times are still ahead for both Syria and the Arab world as a whole. But the real process toward an alternative, though time-consuming, is now starting.”
Still, Korany warns that “at a time when the need for national unity is crucial, Syria’s sociopolitical fragmentation will make coordination, consensus and coalition-building for a working national regime a real challenge.” He speculated that it will also take a long time for Syria to recover its position as an active regional power.
Another point of concern has been Israel’s encroachment onto the newly liberated Syrian territory. Since the regime’s collapse, the Israeli military has carried out more than 480 strikes in Syria, allegedly destroying the majority of the Syrian army’s assets while seizing Syrian territory, breaching the border for the first time in decades.
“At a time when the need for national unity is crucial, Syria’s sociopolitical fragmentation will make coordination, consensus and coalition-building for a working national regime a real challenge.”
“The easy way Israel managed the destruction of Syria’s maritime/military infrastructure shows the new military hierarchy of the Middle East,” said Korany. “The ‘new Middle East’ will be essentially dominated by regional powers such as Turkey and especially Israel.”
Korany concluded, “Though Bashar’s fall was really overdue, hard times are still ahead for both Syria and the Arab world as a whole. But the real process toward an alternative, though time-consuming, is now starting.”
