In the past two weeks, more than 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon and 6,300 injured by Israeli strikes. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, was also killed on September 27. While the looming implications of this conflict remain unclear, we asked AUC faculty members who study the region to share their thoughts.
Bahgat Korany, professor of international relations and political economy, broke down Israel’s objectives into three points:
In a nutshell, “It is the present Israeli government that wants a regional war,” said Korany.
Jason Beckett, associate professor of law, gave an international law perspective. “Law of war contains two clear principles: the duty to distinguish between civilians and combatants, and the duty of proportionality.” In international law, “the targeting of walkie-talkies and pagers would probably be considered a war crime” and the targeted assassinations are also deemed “problematic."
“The number of casualties already approached in just two or three days what it was after 33 days [in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War].”
The war has already had devastating effects in Lebanon, displacing as many as a million people internally and causing more than 30,000 people to flee to war-torn Syria.
Sean Lee, assistant professor of political science, finds that the conflict’s human cost is “even worse than it was in the Israel-Hezbollah War in 2006” as “the number of casualties — the number of people killed and injured — already approached in just two or three days what it was after 33 days in 2006.”
Beckett said that prospects for human rights in Lebanon are “pretty awful,” speculating that essentially all rights will be broken. “The people of Lebanon suffer. They’ve been suffering anyway, but now they suffer more,” Beckett said, emphasizing the human impact of the attacks.
Economically, Korany said that “all indicators without exception show the deteriorating situation, from the worthlessness of the Lebanese currency to the shortage of medicine and basic goods.” Beyond economics, Korany pointed out that “Lebanon is already what we call in political science a ‘fragile/failed state,’ and with displacement from the south, the state’s incapacity to cope will increase.”
Prior to October 7, Lebanon was recovering from what the World Bank called one of the world’s worst financial crises since the 1850s. That crisis was exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic and domestic protests triggered by the Beirut port explosion on August 4, 2020. In the years since those pivotal events, Lebanon had reached a period of political deadlock and economic depression, lasting until the country was dragged into an active state of war over these past weeks.
“The Lebanese lira lost 90% of its value, and about 80% of the population live around the poverty line. Israeli military attacks are making a bad situation far worse,” said Korany. State actors, including the government and Lebanese Armed Forces, remain mostly uninvolved in the current war.
"Lebanon is already what we call in political science a ‘fragile/failed state,’ and with displacement from the south, the state’s incapacity to cope will increase.”
“The situation is bleak,” said Beckett, who has low faith in the international community’s willingness to take action, such as through sanctions and embargoes. The U.S. response is the most relevant to the situation, which Beckett said “is a problem as Biden, Harris and Trump all support the Gaza genocide.”
According to Lee, “If we take certain Israeli cabinet ministers at their word, they would like to see ground invasion and occupation, if not even annexation of South Lebanon.” Lee does not think the annexation is realistic, but he noted that “Israel has a long history of occupying South Lebanon,” invading it in 1978 and 1982 and occupying it from 1982 until 2000. “It would not surprise me if [there is a ground invasion that] leads to a longer occupation, but I think that would also be very costly for the Israelis in both treasure and blood,” he said.
Beckett said he would like a situation where Israeli aggression is permanently curtailed and there is no need for Hamas, Hezbollah, or the Axis of Resistance to exist, “But that seems unlikely.” What must happen, in his view, is a U.S. change of stance on arming Israel. “Criticizing Netanyahu is not enough, especially when you continue to arm and diplomatically protect him. The invasion [in Lebanon] will continue for as long as it has U.S. support.”
Korany believes that two critical measures are needed to save Lebanon from its worsening situation: (1) an immediate ceasefire and pressure on Israel to stop its plans; (2) foreign funds to help those who left their homes in the south and rebuild medical services and general infrastructure so that people may go back.
Beckett concludes, “Theoretically, states have a duty to prevent war crimes and ensure respect for international humanitarian law, but they will not.”
Three Columbia University graduate students decided to spend a semester abroad at AUC. Find out what brought them from New York to Cairo.
James Hebish, Juris Doctor Candidate at Columbia Law School
An Egyptian-American third-year law student, Hebish was thrilled to come to AUC for the University’s unique position. Hebish desires to improve his language skills and gain living experience in Cairo, a city that he is used to transiting through while visiting family in Beni Suef.
Since arriving at AUC, Hebish has been exploring downtown Cairo in his free time, eating koshary at Abou Tarek and watching the latest Arab films at Zawya Cinema. As an amateur oud player, Hebish is attending performances and concerts by Egyptian artists such as Omar Khairat. He is pleased to be immersed in Cairo’s entertainment culture and arts scene.
Academically, Hebish is impressed by the faculty’s critical approach and ability to question well-established subject matters. “The professors who speak about international law at AUC are informed by the history of the region. They’re coming at it with an alternative perspective,” said Hebish. His favorite AUC class is Introduction to International Human Rights Law and Critique with Associate Professor of Law Jason Beckett.
Hebish has also taken pleasure in the sprawling campus and welcoming environment at AUC. “Everyone from the cafe workers to the security guards and even random people on the street are very eager to help,” said Hebish. “AUCians and Egyptians generally take pride in that kind of hospitality.”
Leah Daoud, Master of Public Administration Candidate at Columbia School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA)
A second-year student of Lebanese descent, Daoud was most excited to be in an Arabic-speaking country, where she can connect to her heritage language. “Everybody wants to come to Egypt; the history and culture are unparalleled,” she said.
Daoud feels that the rigorous course offerings in Arabic language and Middle East studies are enriching her SIPA specialization in ways that would not be possible in the States. “I’m taking classes that are really tailored to my interests, which are Middle East studies and human rights. Being at AUC gives me an opportunity to learn about the experiences of refugees in the region,” said Daoud.
Daoud is particularly engaged in her Arabic class with Shaimaa Hassanein, adjunct faculty of discipline. She is also taking Professor Beckett’s course in human rights alongside Hebish, and the two agreed that the professor’s willingness to critique traditional ideas is refreshing. “The innovative approach of AUC professors is so enriching to my education,” said Daoud.
Aside from academics and Egyptian kindness, Daoud is really enjoying AUC cats, which she said is the perfect antidote for homesickness. When on campus, Daoud carries around snacks to indulge their endless appetites, reminding her of her four cats back home.
Lucas Brooks, Master of International Affairs Candidate at Columbia School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA)
A serial study-abroad student, Brooks came to AUC to enrich his perspective of the world and widen his breadth of knowledge. “It’s almost strange to think about studying international affairs without an experience internationally, so the opportunity to study abroad really complements my greater education,” said Brooks.
Like the other Columbia students, Brooks has found that professors at AUC are ambitious and often less set in their ways than he is used to. Brooks said, “There’s more willingness to go off the traditional path at AUC, which is reflected here in the curriculum and classroom discussions.”
Professors at AUC are also more accessible than Brooks is accustomed to. For instance, he is currently taking courses with two former Egyptian ambassadors whom he refers to as “standout professors” whose courses are focused “much more on real instruction, real experience, and real applications in the world.”
He is grateful that professors anchor their teachings in the student experience, relating theoretical concepts to case studies in Egypt. “In classes, the model country for theoretical discussions is not just the U.S., even though this is an American University; it’s the U.S. and Egypt.”
Aside from the professors, Brooks is most enjoying the AUC campus itself. “The campus was very intentionally built for the student experience, just like the instruction, as opposed to being built to look good on the outside.”
With hopes of working in Washington, D.C. after he graduates, Brooks is confident that his time at AUC will inform his future decision-making and analysis of global events.
